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Prediction for CME (2022-10-07T08:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-10-07T08:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21928/-1
CME Note: This CME is faint in white light imagery, but is visible to the N/NW in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2/C3 coronagraphs. The source is likely a filament eruption starting around 2022-10-07T07:00Z near AR 3111 (N28W51), centered around N30W40. Dimming is visible in SDO AIA 195 and STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery starting around 07:20Z, and post-eruptive arcades can be seen in SDO AIA 195/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195/304 at 08:00Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-10-11T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/21936/1
Model Inputs:
2022-10-07T08:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=30.0, Lat.=38.0, Speed=349.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2022-10-07T18:30Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Glancing blow.
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-10-07T12:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact (glancing blow/minor impact)
Mars with estimated shock arrival time 2022-10-12T19:00Z
STEREO B with estimated shock arrival time 2022-10-11T12:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221007_183000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221007_183000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221007_183000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221007_183000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221007_183000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221007_183000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221007_183000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221007_183000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221007_183000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221007_183000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221007_183000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221007_183000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221007_183000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221007_183000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221007_183000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221007_183000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 87.27 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2022-10-07T16:44Z

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